G4 409 · CVG → SRQ

took off 9:04 AM ET · landed 10:57 AM ET (scheduled 8:54 AM ET → 11:15 AM ET)

Forecast issued Wed 12:00 PM ET · 3h after departure

Arrive at SRQ more than 15 minutes late?

Not late chance · ±0 pts −1 pt · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late did it get to SRQ?

RESOLVED

On time or early
✓
15–30 min late
–
30 min–1 hour late
–
1–2 hours late
–
Over 2 hours late
–

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ This flight has been late 25% of the time recently

↑ G4's recent on-time record

↑ 8am departures from CVG are often late

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at CVG

↓ Wednesdays in September are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

CVG (origin) Gusts11 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

SRQ (destination) Gusts12 kt Ceiling8,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.22 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

G4 409 · CVG → SRQ

Odds over time

How late did it get to SRQ?