G4 436 · DSM → AZA

departs 8:00 AM CT · arrives 9:16 AM MT

Forecast issued Wed 2:00 AM ET · 7h before departure

Arrive at AZA more than 15 minutes late?

19% chance · ±1 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to AZA?

On time or early
80%
15–30 min late
8%
30 min–1 hour late
5%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ AZA is prone to delays

↑ Cloud base down to 567 ft, visibility down to 1.75 mi, 2.1 in of rain forecast at DSM that day

↑ This flight has been late 26% of the time recently

↓ Early flights usually leave on time

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at AZA

Weather at each end

DSM (origin) Gusts10 kt Ceiling567 ft Visibility1.75 mi Precip2.11 in

AZA (destination) Gusts9 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

G4 436 · DSM → AZA

Odds over time

How late will it get to AZA?