G4 654 · AZA → FSD

departs 8:19 AM MT · arrives 12:53 PM CT

Forecast issued Wed 10:00 PM ET · 11h after departure

Arrive at FSD more than 15 minutes late?

13% chance · ±0 pts +2 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to FSD?

On time or early
86%
15–30 min late
6%
30 min–1 hour late
4%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 200 ft, visibility down to 0.13 mi forecast at FSD that day

↑ G4's recent on-time record

↓ Early flights usually leave on time

↓ FSD usually runs smoothly

Weather at each end

AZA (origin) Gusts9 kt Ceiling5,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

FSD (destination) Gusts4 kt Ceiling200 ft Visibility0.13 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

G4 654 · AZA → FSD

Odds over time

How late will it get to FSD?