Tracked live by the FAA, but its flight plan was first seen after takeoff, so we don't know the scheduled time and can't say whether it's late.

ALLEGIANT · FLIGHT G4 657 LANDED 7:36 PM ET, ~6 MIN LATE · SCHEDULED TIME UNKNOWN

Wednesday, September 30

G4 657 · IWA → FWA

took off 11:36 PM MSK · landed 7:36 PM ET (scheduled time unknown)

Forecast issued Wed 10:00 PM ET · 5h after departure

Arrive at FWA more than 15 minutes late?

25% chance · ±1 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↑ Mostly benign weather forecast at IWA

↑ Arrivals into FWA at that hour are often late

↓ Other factors

↓ Wednesdays in September are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

IWA (origin) Gusts— Ceiling— Visibility— Precip—

FWA (destination) Gusts9 kt Ceiling9,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.04 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

G4 657 · IWA → FWA

Odds over time