G4 741 · FSD → AZA

departs 1:47 PM CT · arrives 2:55 PM MT

Forecast issued Wed 2:00 AM ET · 13h before departure

Arrive at AZA more than 15 minutes late?

22% chance · ±4 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to AZA?

On time or early
78%
15–30 min late
10%
30 min–1 hour late
4%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ AZA is prone to delays

↑ Cloud base down to 100 ft, visibility down to 0.3 mi forecast at FSD that day

↑ This flight has been late 25% of the time recently

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at AZA

↓ Wednesdays in September are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

FSD (origin) Gusts6 kt Ceiling100 ft Visibility0.3 mi Precipnone

AZA (destination) Gusts9 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

G4 741 · FSD → AZA

Odds over time

How late will it get to AZA?