MQ 3385 · CID → ORD

departs 8:35 PM CT · arrives 9:57 PM CT

Forecast issued Wed 10:00 PM ET · 0h before departure

Arrive at ORD more than 15 minutes late?

64% chance · ±0 pts +16 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to ORD?

On time or early
29%
15–30 min late
18%
30 min–1 hour late
9%
1–2 hours late
17%
Over 2 hours late
7%
Cancelled
20%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 500 ft, visibility down to 1.75 mi, 0.9 in of rain forecast at ORD that day

↑ Arrivals into ORD at that hour are often late

↑ Cloud base down to 200 ft, visibility down to 1.25 mi, 1.2 in of rain forecast at CID that day

↓ Wednesdays in September are usually quieter than average

↓ CID usually runs smoothly

Weather at each end

CID (origin) Gusts10 kt Ceiling200 ft Visibility1.25 mi Precip1.07 in

ORD (destination) Gusts19 kt Ceiling500 ft Visibility1.75 mi Precip0.95 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

MQ 3385 · CID → ORD

Odds over time

How late will it get to ORD?