MQ 3420 · ORD → ALB

departs 7:37 PM CT · arrives 10:44 PM ET

Forecast issued Wed 10:00 PM ET · 1h after departure

Arrive at ALB more than 15 minutes late?

95% chance · ±0 pts +5 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to ALB?

On time or early
49%
15–30 min late
14%
30 min–1 hour late
17%
1–2 hours late
9%
Over 2 hours late
5%
Cancelled
6%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 7pm departures from ORD are often late

↑ Cloud base down to 500 ft, visibility down to 1.75 mi, 0.9 in of rain forecast at ORD that day

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↓ Wednesdays in September are usually quieter than average

↓ ALB usually runs smoothly

Weather at each end

ORD (origin) Gusts19 kt Ceiling500 ft Visibility1.75 mi Precip0.95 in

ALB (destination) Gusts4 kt Ceiling300 ft Visibility4 mi Precip0.02 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

MQ 3420 · ORD → ALB

Odds over time

How late will it get to ALB?