MQ 3453 · FSM → DFW

departs 5:17 PM CT · arrives 6:29 PM CT

Forecast issued Tue 10:00 PM ET · 20h before departure

Arrive at DFW more than 15 minutes late?

41% chance · ±4 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to DFW?

On time or early
57%
15–30 min late
12%
30 min–1 hour late
16%
1–2 hours late
7%
Over 2 hours late
5%
Cancelled
3%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Arrivals into DFW at that hour are often late

↑ Gusts to 30 kt forecast at DFW that day

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↓ Wednesdays in September are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at FSM

Weather at each end

FSM (origin) Gusts20 kt Ceiling9,667 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

DFW (destination) Gusts30 kt Ceiling2,200 ft Visibility9.66667 mi Precip0.09 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

MQ 3453 · FSM → DFW

Odds over time

How late will it get to DFW?