MQ 3494 · SGF → DFW

departs 2:29 PM CT · arrives 4:02 PM CT

Forecast issued Tue 8:00 PM ET · 20h before departure

Arrive at DFW more than 15 minutes late?

40% chance · ±7 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to DFW?

On time or early
59%
15–30 min late
15%
30 min–1 hour late
16%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
2%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Arrivals into DFW at that hour are often late

↑ Gusts to 31 kt forecast at DFW that day

↑ DFW is busy at that time

↓ Wednesdays in September are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at SGF

Weather at each end

SGF (origin) Gusts20 kt Ceiling10,333 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

DFW (destination) Gusts31 kt Ceiling1,800 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.12 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

MQ 3494 · SGF → DFW

Odds over time

How late will it get to DFW?