MQ 3511 · MAF → DFW

took off 12:03 PM CT · expected to land 12:54 PM CT (scheduled 11:57 AM CT → 1:22 PM CT)

Forecast issued Wed 11:00 AM ET · 2h before departure

Arrive at DFW more than 15 minutes late?

<1% chance · ±0 pts −14 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.

How late will it get to DFW?

LIVE

On time or early
100%
15–30 min late
<1%
30 min–1 hour late
0%
1–2 hours late
0%
Over 2 hours late
0%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%; while it’s in the air they come from the FAA’s arrival estimate.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Gusts to 30 kt forecast at DFW that day

↑ Arrivals into DFW at that hour are often late

↑ DFW is busy at that time

↓ Wednesdays in September are usually quieter than average

↓ 11am departures from MAF are usually not late

Weather at each end

MAF (origin) Gusts25 kt Ceiling6,000 ft Visibility9 mi Precip0.01 in

DFW (destination) Gusts30 kt Ceiling2,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.21 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

MQ 3511 · MAF → DFW

Odds over time

How late will it get to DFW?