MQ 3538 · ORD → ICT

departs 7:48 PM CT · arrives 9:45 PM CT

Forecast issued Wed 9:00 PM ET · 0h before departure

Arrive at ICT more than 15 minutes late?

73% chance · ±0 pts +5 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to ICT?

On time or early
25%
15–30 min late
23%
30 min–1 hour late
26%
1–2 hours late
10%
Over 2 hours late
9%
Cancelled
7%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 500 ft, visibility down to 1.75 mi, 0.9 in of rain forecast at ORD that day

↑ 7pm departures from ORD are often late

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↓ Wednesdays in September are usually quieter than average

↓ ICT usually runs smoothly

Weather at each end

ORD (origin) Gusts19 kt Ceiling500 ft Visibility1.75 mi Precip1.03 in

ICT (destination) Gusts24 kt Ceiling2,600 ft Visibility1.5 mi Precip0.31 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

MQ 3538 · ORD → ICT

Odds over time

How late will it get to ICT?