Schedule: FAA flight plans.

ENVOY · FLIGHT MQ 3578 PROBABLY LANDED (THE FAA HASN'T CONFIRMED THE LANDING TIME)

Wednesday, September 30

MQ 3578 · ORD → XNA

took off 7:40 PM CT · probably landed (not confirmed) (scheduled 6:54 PM CT → 8:42 PM CT)

Forecast issued Wed 10:00 PM ET · 2h after departure

Arrive at XNA more than 15 minutes late?

56% chance · ±0 pts −2 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to XNA?

On time or early
42%
15–30 min late
20%
30 min–1 hour late
18%
1–2 hours late
8%
Over 2 hours late
7%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 500 ft, visibility down to 1.75 mi, 0.9 in of rain forecast at ORD that day

↑ 6pm departures from ORD are often late

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↓ Wednesdays in September are usually quieter than average

↓ Gusts to 25 kt forecast at XNA that day

Weather at each end

ORD (origin) Gusts19 kt Ceiling500 ft Visibility1.75 mi Precip0.95 in

XNA (destination) Gusts25 kt Ceiling10,800 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.03 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

MQ 3578 · ORD → XNA

Odds over time

How late will it get to XNA?