Tracked live by the FAA, but its flight plan was first seen after takeoff, so we don't know the scheduled time and can't say whether it's late.

ENVOY · FLIGHT MQ 3615 SCHEDULED · SCHEDULED TIME UNKNOWN

Wednesday, September 30

MQ 3615 · ORD → BGR

departs 9:11 PM CT · arrives 12:12 AM ET

Forecast issued Wed 10:00 PM ET · 0h before departure

Arrive at BGR more than 15 minutes late?

45% chance · ±2 pts −8 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 500 ft, visibility down to 1.75 mi, 0.9 in of rain forecast at ORD that day

↑ 9pm departures from ORD are often late

↑ Other factors

↓ Wednesdays in September are usually quieter than average

↓ BGR usually runs smoothly

Weather at each end

ORD (origin) Gusts19 kt Ceiling500 ft Visibility1.75 mi Precip0.95 in

BGR (destination) Gusts7 kt Ceiling1,400 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

MQ 3615 · ORD → BGR

Odds over time