Tracked live by the FAA. The scheduled times shown are from a typical Wednesday because the FAA's flight plan was first seen after takeoff.

ENVOY · FLIGHT MQ 3648 SCHEDULED

Wednesday, September 30

MQ 3648 · ORD → GSO

departs 6:40 PM CT · arrives 9:47 PM ET

Forecast issued Wed 10:00 PM ET · 2h after departure

Arrive at GSO more than 15 minutes late?

99% chance · ±0 pts +4 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to GSO?

On time or early
49%
15–30 min late
18%
30 min–1 hour late
12%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
7%
Cancelled
9%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 500 ft, visibility down to 1.75 mi, 0.9 in of rain forecast at ORD that day

↑ 6pm departures from ORD are often late

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↓ Wednesdays in September are usually quieter than average

↓ Cloud base down to 200 ft, visibility down to 0.13 mi forecast at GSO that day

Weather at each end

ORD (origin) Gusts19 kt Ceiling500 ft Visibility1.75 mi Precip0.95 in

GSO (destination) Gusts9 kt Ceiling200 ft Visibility0.13 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

MQ 3648 · ORD → GSO

Odds over time

How late will it get to GSO?