Tracked live by the FAA, but its flight plan was first seen after takeoff, so we don't know the scheduled time and can't say whether it's late.

ENVOY · FLIGHT MQ 3660 LANDED 7:07 PM CT, ~9 MIN LATE · SCHEDULED TIME UNKNOWN

Wednesday, September 30

MQ 3660 · ORD → XNA

took off 5:48 PM CT · landed 7:07 PM CT (scheduled time unknown)

Forecast issued Wed 10:00 PM ET · 3h after departure

Arrive at XNA more than 15 minutes late?

64% chance · ±0 pts +14 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 500 ft, visibility down to 1.75 mi, 0.9 in of rain forecast at ORD that day

↑ 5pm departures from ORD are often late

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↓ Wednesdays in September are usually quieter than average

↓ Other factors

Weather at each end

ORD (origin) Gusts19 kt Ceiling500 ft Visibility1.75 mi Precip0.95 in

XNA (destination) Gusts25 kt Ceiling10,800 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.03 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

MQ 3660 · ORD → XNA

Odds over time