Schedule: a typical summer Wednesday (the flights of Jul 29, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
ENVOY · FLIGHT MQ 3674
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Wednesday, September 30
MQ 3674 · ORD → CVG
departs 6:46 PM CT · arrives 9:20 PM ET
Forecast issued Wed 10:00 PM ET · 2h after departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Wed 9/30
Today 30%
Sat 10/3 20%
Sun 10/4 32%
Mon 10/5 19%
Tue 10/6 20%
Wed 10/7 22%
Odds over time
Arrive at CVG more than 15 minutes late?
54%
chance · ±0 pts
+4 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
54%
Leave 15+ late
32%
Arrive 1h+ late
14%
Cancelled
7%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
25%
50%
75%
100%
2.9d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Now
Arrive at CVG more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 52% · changed +4 pts in 24h
+4 pts
54%
Yes 54%
No 46%
Leave ORD more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 31% · changed −3 pts in 24h
−3 pts
32%
Yes 32%
No 68%
Arrive at CVG more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 14% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
14%
Yes 14%
No 86%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: 7% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
7%
Yes 7%
No 93%
How late will it get to CVG?
On time or early
43%
15–30 min late
24%
30 min–1 hour late
13%
1–2 hours late
8%
Over 2 hours late
5%
Cancelled
7%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 500 ft, visibility down to 1.75 mi, 0.9 in of rain forecast at ORD that day
↑
6pm departures from ORD are often late
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↓
Wednesdays in September are usually quieter than average
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at CVG
Weather at each end
ORD (origin)
Gusts 19 kt Ceiling 500 ft Visibility 1.75 mi Precip 0.95 in
CVG (destination)
Gusts 17 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.