Schedule: FAA flight plans.

ENVOY · FLIGHT MQ 3696 PROBABLY LANDED (THE FAA HASN'T CONFIRMED THE LANDING TIME)

Wednesday, September 30

MQ 3696 · ORD → COU

took off 7:46 PM CT · probably landed (not confirmed) (scheduled 7:26 PM CT → 9:00 PM CT)

Forecast issued Wed 10:00 PM ET · 2h after departure

Arrive at COU more than 15 minutes late?

58% chance · ±1 pts +12 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to COU?

On time or early
39%
15–30 min late
16%
30 min–1 hour late
21%
1–2 hours late
11%
Over 2 hours late
7%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 500 ft, visibility down to 1.75 mi, 0.9 in of rain forecast at ORD that day

↑ 7pm departures from ORD are often late

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↓ Wednesdays in September are usually quieter than average

↓ COU usually runs smoothly

Weather at each end

ORD (origin) Gusts19 kt Ceiling500 ft Visibility1.75 mi Precip0.95 in

COU (destination) Gusts21 kt Ceiling11,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

MQ 3696 · ORD → COU

Odds over time

How late will it get to COU?