Tracked live by the FAA, but its flight plan was first seen after takeoff, so we don't know the scheduled time and can't say whether it's late.

ENVOY · FLIGHT MQ 3712 PROBABLY LANDED (THE FAA HASN'T CONFIRMED THE LANDING TIME) · SCHEDULED TIME UNKNOWN

Wednesday, September 30

MQ 3712 · ORD → OMA

took off 7:17 PM CT · probably landed (not confirmed) (scheduled time unknown)

Forecast issued Wed 10:00 PM ET · 2h after departure

Arrive at OMA more than 15 minutes late?

68% chance · ±0 pts +8 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 467 ft, visibility down to 2 mi, 1.6 in of rain, thunderstorms forecast at OMA that day

↑ Cloud base down to 500 ft, visibility down to 1.75 mi, 0.9 in of rain forecast at ORD that day

↑ 6pm departures from ORD are often late

↓ Wednesdays in September are usually quieter than average

↓ OMA usually runs smoothly

Weather at each end

ORD (origin) Gusts19 kt Ceiling500 ft Visibility1.75 mi Precip0.95 in

OMA (destination) Gusts8 kt Ceiling500 ft Visibility2 mi Precip0.57 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

MQ 3712 · ORD → OMA

Odds over time