MQ 3780 · DFW → AEX

departs 9:30 PM CT · arrives 10:57 PM CT

Forecast issued Wed 10:00 PM ET · 0h before departure

Arrive at AEX more than 15 minutes late?

44% chance · ±2 pts +17 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to AEX?

On time or early
45%
15–30 min late
9%
30 min–1 hour late
5%
1–2 hours late
14%
Over 2 hours late
7%
Cancelled
20%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Gusts to 30 kt, 0.3 in of rain, thunderstorms forecast at DFW that day

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↑ 9pm departures from DFW are often late

↓ Wednesdays in September are usually quieter than average

↓ AEX usually runs smoothly

Weather at each end

DFW (origin) Gusts30 kt Ceiling2,000 ft Visibility5 mi Precip0.25 in

AEX (destination) Gusts21 kt Ceiling6,000 ft Visibility7 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

MQ 3780 · DFW → AEX

Odds over time

How late will it get to AEX?