MQ 3782 · DFW → MHK

departs 9:50 PM CT · arrives 11:30 PM CT

Forecast issued Wed 10:00 PM ET · 1h before departure

Arrive at MHK more than 15 minutes late?

53% chance · ±5 pts +11 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to MHK?

On time or early
37%
15–30 min late
17%
30 min–1 hour late
13%
1–2 hours late
6%
Over 2 hours late
5%
Cancelled
22%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Gusts to 30 kt, 0.3 in of rain, thunderstorms forecast at DFW that day

↑ 9pm departures from DFW are often late

↑ Cloud base down to 700 ft, visibility down to 0.75 mi, 1.1 in of rain forecast at MHK that day

↓ Wednesdays in September are usually quieter than average

↓ MHK usually runs smoothly

Weather at each end

DFW (origin) Gusts30 kt Ceiling2,000 ft Visibility5 mi Precip0.25 in

MHK (destination) Gusts10 kt Ceiling700 ft Visibility0.75 mi Precip1.04 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

MQ 3782 · DFW → MHK

Odds over time

How late will it get to MHK?