MQ 3789 · AMA → DFW

departs 6:56 PM CT · arrives 8:18 PM CT

Forecast issued Wed 8:00 AM ET · 12h before departure

Arrive at DFW more than 15 minutes late?

48% chance · ±0 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to DFW?

On time or early
45%
15–30 min late
0%
30 min–1 hour late
20%
1–2 hours late
15%
Over 2 hours late
7%
Cancelled
13%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Gusts to 31 kt forecast at DFW that day

↑ Arrivals into DFW at that hour are often late

↑ Gusts to 29 kt, cloud base down to 800 ft, visibility down to 2.5 mi, 2.5 in of rain forecast at AMA that day

↓ Wednesdays in September are usually quieter than average

↓ AMA usually runs smoothly

Weather at each end

AMA (origin) Gusts29 kt Ceiling800 ft Visibility2.5 mi Precip2.47 in

DFW (destination) Gusts31 kt Ceiling2,500 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.22 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

MQ 3789 · AMA → DFW

Odds over time

How late will it get to DFW?