Schedule: FAA flight plans.

ENVOY · FLIGHT MQ 3798 PROBABLY LANDED (THE FAA HASN'T CONFIRMED THE LANDING TIME)

Wednesday, September 30 Yesterday

MQ 3798 · DFW → CID

took off 7:35 PM CT · probably landed (not confirmed) (scheduled 6:29 PM CT → 8:36 PM CT)

Forecast issued Wed 10:00 PM ET · 2h after departure

Arrive at CID more than 15 minutes late?

56% chance · ±0 pts +21 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to CID?

On time or early
39%
15–30 min late
6%
30 min–1 hour late
14%
1–2 hours late
21%
Over 2 hours late
8%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Gusts to 30 kt, 0.4 in of rain, thunderstorms forecast at DFW that day

↑ 6pm departures from DFW are often late

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↓ CID usually runs smoothly

↓ Wednesdays in September are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

DFW (origin) Gusts30 kt Ceiling2,000 ft Visibility5 mi Precip0.25 in

CID (destination) Gusts10 kt Ceiling200 ft Visibility1.25 mi Precip1.07 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

MQ 3798 · DFW → CID

Odds over time

How late will it get to CID?