Tracked live by the FAA, but its flight plan was first seen after takeoff, so we don't know the scheduled time and can't say whether it's late.

ENVOY · FLIGHT MQ 3819 LANDED 5:49 AM CT, ~14 MIN LATE · SCHEDULED TIME UNKNOWN

Wednesday, September 30

MQ 3819 · MSN → ORD

took off 5:13 AM CT · landed 5:49 AM CT (scheduled time unknown)

Forecast issued Wed 10:00 PM ET · 16h after departure

Arrive at ORD more than 15 minutes late?

22% chance · ±0 pts +7 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 500 ft, visibility down to 1.75 mi, 0.9 in of rain forecast at ORD that day

↑ MQ's recent on-time record

↑ Other factors

↓ Early flights usually leave on time

↓ 5am departures from MSN are usually not late

Weather at each end

MSN (origin) Gusts8 kt Ceiling340 ft Visibility1.5 mi Precip0.31 in

ORD (destination) Gusts19 kt Ceiling500 ft Visibility1.75 mi Precip0.95 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

MQ 3819 · MSN → ORD

Odds over time