Tracked live by the FAA, but its flight plan was first seen after takeoff, so we don't know the scheduled time and can't say whether it's late.

ENVOY · FLIGHT MQ 3821 LANDED 5:52 AM CT, ~6 MIN LATE · SCHEDULED TIME UNKNOWN

Wednesday, September 30

MQ 3821 · TUL → DFW

took off 5:09 AM CT · landed 5:52 AM CT (scheduled time unknown)

Forecast issued Wed 10:00 PM ET · 16h after departure

Arrive at DFW more than 15 minutes late?

23% chance · ±0 pts +13 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Gusts to 30 kt, 0.4 in of rain, thunderstorms forecast at DFW that day

↑ Other factors

↑ DFW is busy at that time

↓ Early flights usually leave on time

↓ 5am departures from TUL are usually not late

Weather at each end

TUL (origin) Gusts24 kt Ceiling3,800 ft Visibility7 mi Precip0.14 in

DFW (destination) Gusts30 kt Ceiling2,000 ft Visibility5 mi Precip0.25 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

MQ 3821 · TUL → DFW

Odds over time