Schedule: a typical summer Wednesday (the flights of Jul 29, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
ENVOY · FLIGHT MQ 3830
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Wednesday, September 30
MQ 3830 · TUL → DFW
departs 8:20 PM CT · arrives 9:45 PM CT
Forecast issued Wed 10:00 PM ET · 1h after departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Wed 9/30
Today 33%
Odds over time
Arrive at DFW more than 15 minutes late?
64%
chance · ±1 pts
+0 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
64%
Leave 15+ late
55%
Arrive 1h+ late
39%
Cancelled
33%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
25%
50%
75%
100%
2.9d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at DFW more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 41% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
64%
Yes 64%
No 36%
Leave TUL more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 45% · changed +8 pts in 24h
+8 pts
55%
Yes 55%
No 45%
Arrive at DFW more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 13% · changed +16 pts in 24h
+16 pts
39%
Yes 39%
No 61%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: 20% · changed −5 pts in 24h
−5 pts
33%
Yes 33%
No 67%
How late will it get to DFW?
On time or early
24%
15–30 min late
3%
30 min–1 hour late
14%
1–2 hours late
18%
Over 2 hours late
8%
Cancelled
33%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Gusts to 30 kt, 0.3 in of rain, thunderstorms forecast at DFW that day
↑
Mostly benign weather forecast at TUL
↑
Arrivals into DFW at that hour are often late
↓
Wednesdays in September are usually quieter than average
↓
TUL usually runs smoothly
Weather at each end
TUL (origin)
Gusts 24 kt Ceiling 3,800 ft Visibility 7 mi Precip 0.14 in
DFW (destination)
Gusts 30 kt Ceiling 2,000 ft Visibility 5 mi Precip 0.25 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.