Schedule: a typical Wednesday (the flights of Jul 29, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
ENVOY · FLIGHT MQ 3845
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Wednesday, September 30 Yesterday
MQ 3845 · MCI → ORD
departs 5:30 AM CT · arrives 7:31 AM CT
Forecast issued Wed 10:00 PM ET · 16h after departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Wed 9/30
Today 14%
Fri 10/2 11%
Sat 10/3 8%
Sun 10/4 9%
Mon 10/5 8%
Tue 10/6 6%
Wed 10/7 12%
Odds over time
Arrive at ORD more than 15 minutes late?
20%
chance · ±0 pts
+3 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
20%
Leave 15+ late
15%
Arrive 1h+ late
9%
Cancelled
2%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
2.8d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at ORD more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 20% · changed +3 pts in 24h
+3 pts
20%
Yes 20%
No 80%
Leave MCI more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 15% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
15%
Yes 15%
No 85%
Arrive at ORD more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 9% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
9%
Yes 9%
No 91%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
How late will it get to ORD?
On time or early
78%
15–30 min late
7%
30 min–1 hour late
5%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
5%
Cancelled
2%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 500 ft, visibility down to 1.75 mi, 0.9 in of rain forecast at ORD that day
↑
Arrivals into ORD at that hour are often late
↑
ORD is busy at that time
↓
Early flights usually leave on time
↓
5am departures from MCI are usually not late
Weather at each end
MCI (origin)
Gusts 12 kt Ceiling 4,620 ft Visibility 2.5 mi Precip 0.59 in
ORD (destination)
Gusts 19 kt Ceiling 500 ft Visibility 1.75 mi Precip 0.95 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.