Schedule: a typical summer Wednesday (the flights of Jul 29, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
ENVOY · FLIGHT MQ 3847
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Wednesday, September 30
MQ 3847 · DFW → XNA
departs 12:36 PM CT · arrives 1:57 PM CT
Forecast issued Wed 10:00 PM ET · 8h after departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Wed 9/30
Today 38%
Mon 10/5 14%
Fri 10/9 12%
Odds over time
Arrive at XNA more than 15 minutes late?
28%
chance · ±0 pts
+12 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
28%
Leave 15+ late
23%
Arrive 1h+ late
10%
Cancelled
4%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
2.9d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at XNA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 25% · changed +12 pts in 24h
+12 pts
28%
Yes 28%
No 72%
Leave DFW more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 22% · changed +7 pts in 24h
+7 pts
23%
Yes 23%
No 77%
Arrive at XNA more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 10% · changed +5 pts in 24h
+5 pts
10%
Yes 10%
No 90%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed +4 pts in 24h
+4 pts
4%
Yes 4%
No 96%
How late will it get to XNA?
On time or early
69%
15–30 min late
9%
30 min–1 hour late
9%
1–2 hours late
7%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
4%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Gusts to 30 kt, 0.4 in of rain, thunderstorms forecast at DFW that day
↑
12pm departures from DFW are often late
↑
DFW is busy at that time
↓
Wednesdays in September are usually quieter than average
↓
Gusts to 25 kt forecast at XNA that day
Weather at each end
DFW (origin)
Gusts 30 kt Ceiling 2,000 ft Visibility 5 mi Precip 0.25 in
XNA (destination)
Gusts 25 kt Ceiling 10,800 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.03 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.