MQ 3929 · PHX → RDM

took off 12:04 PM MT · landed 2:08 PM PT (scheduled 11:45 AM MT → 2:29 PM PT)

Forecast issued Wed 10:00 PM ET · 7h after departure

Arrive at RDM more than 15 minutes late?

Not late chance · ±0 pts −1 pt · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late did it get to RDM?

RESOLVED

On time or early
✓
15–30 min late
–
30 min–1 hour late
–
1–2 hours late
–
Over 2 hours late
–

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ PHX is busy at that time

↑ 11am departures from PHX are often late

↑ PHX is prone to delays

↓ Wednesdays in September are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at RDM

Weather at each end

PHX (origin) Gusts9 kt Ceiling11,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

RDM (destination) Gusts10 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

MQ 3929 · PHX → RDM

Odds over time

How late did it get to RDM?