MQ 3929 · RDM → PHX

departs 2:54 PM PT · arrives 5:28 PM MT

Forecast issued Wed 6:00 AM ET · 12h before departure

Arrive at PHX more than 15 minutes late?

8% chance · ±1 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to PHX?

On time or early
91%
15–30 min late
3%
30 min–1 hour late
3%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Arrivals into PHX at that hour are often late

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↑ PHX is prone to delays

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at PHX

↓ This flight has been late 12% of the time recently

Weather at each end

RDM (origin) Gusts13 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

PHX (destination) Gusts6 kt Ceiling11,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

MQ 3929 · RDM → PHX

Odds over time

How late will it get to PHX?