Schedule: a typical Wednesday (the flights of Jul 29, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
ENVOY · FLIGHT MQ 3936
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Wednesday, September 30 Yesterday
MQ 3936 · FAR → DFW
departs 5:39 PM CT · arrives 8:26 PM CT
Forecast issued Wed 10:00 PM ET · 3h after departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Wed 9/30
Today 47%
Fri 10/2 37%
Sat 10/3 24%
Sun 10/4 18%
Mon 10/5 16%
Tue 10/6 11%
Wed 10/7 10%
Odds over time
Arrive at DFW more than 15 minutes late?
50%
chance · ±2 pts
+21 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
50%
Leave 15+ late
54%
Arrive 1h+ late
33%
Cancelled
18%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
25%
50%
75%
100%
2.8d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at DFW more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 44% · changed +21 pts in 24h
+21 pts
50%
Yes 50%
No 50%
Leave FAR more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 49% · changed +33 pts in 24h
+33 pts
54%
Yes 54%
No 46%
Arrive at DFW more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 23% · changed +24 pts in 24h
+24 pts
33%
Yes 33%
No 67%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: 10% · changed +15 pts in 24h
+15 pts
18%
Yes 18%
No 82%
How late will it get to DFW?
On time or early
41%
15–30 min late
8%
30 min–1 hour late
6%
1–2 hours late
16%
Over 2 hours late
11%
Cancelled
18%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Gusts to 30 kt, 0.4 in of rain, thunderstorms forecast at DFW that day
↑
Arrivals into DFW at that hour are often late
↑
DFW is prone to delays
↓
FAR usually runs smoothly
↓
Wednesdays in September are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
FAR (origin)
Gusts 18 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
DFW (destination)
Gusts 30 kt Ceiling 2,000 ft Visibility 5 mi Precip 0.25 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.