MQ 3940 · SJC → PHX

took off 4:08 PM PT · expected to land 5:34 PM MT (scheduled 4:13 PM PT → 6:13 PM MT)

Forecast issued Wed 6:00 PM ET · 1h before departure

Arrive at PHX more than 15 minutes late?

0% chance · ±0 pts +1 pt · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.

How late will it get to PHX?

LIVE

On time or early
100%
15–30 min late
0%
30 min–1 hour late
0%
1–2 hours late
0%
Over 2 hours late
0%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%; while it’s in the air they come from the FAA’s arrival estimate.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Arrivals into PHX at that hour are often late

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↑ PHX is prone to delays

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at PHX

↓ Wednesdays in September are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

SJC (origin) Gusts6 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility9 mi Precipnone

PHX (destination) Gusts9 kt Ceiling11,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

MQ 3940 · SJC → PHX

Odds over time

How late will it get to PHX?