MQ 3941 · ORD → XNA

departs 10:07 PM CT · arrives 11:55 PM CT

Forecast issued Wed 10:00 PM ET · 1h before departure

Arrive at XNA more than 15 minutes late?

44% chance · ±2 pts −2 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.

How late will it get to XNA?

On time or early
53%
15–30 min late
14%
30 min–1 hour late
17%
1–2 hours late
8%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
4%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 500 ft, visibility down to 1.75 mi, 0.9 in of rain forecast at ORD that day

↑ 10pm departures from ORD are often late

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↓ Wednesdays in September are usually quieter than average

↓ Gusts to 25 kt forecast at XNA that day

Weather at each end

ORD (origin) Gusts19 kt Ceiling500 ft Visibility1.75 mi Precip0.95 in

XNA (destination) Gusts25 kt Ceiling10,800 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.03 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

MQ 3941 · ORD → XNA

Odds over time

How late will it get to XNA?