Tracked live by the FAA, but its flight plan was first seen after takeoff, so we don't know the scheduled time and can't say whether it's late.

ENVOY · FLIGHT MQ 3951 LANDED 7:49 PM ET, ~54 MIN LATE · SCHEDULED TIME UNKNOWN

Wednesday, September 30

MQ 3951 · ORD → DAY

took off 6:07 PM CT · landed 7:49 PM ET (scheduled time unknown)

Forecast issued Wed 10:00 PM ET · 4h after departure

Arrive at DAY more than 15 minutes late?

54% chance · ±2 pts +7 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 500 ft, visibility down to 1.75 mi, 0.9 in of rain forecast at ORD that day

↑ 5pm departures from ORD are often late

↑ ORD is busy at that time

↓ Wednesdays in September are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at DAY

Weather at each end

ORD (origin) Gusts19 kt Ceiling500 ft Visibility1.75 mi Precip0.95 in

DAY (destination) Gusts10 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

MQ 3951 · ORD → DAY

Odds over time