MQ 3955 · ORD → MHK

departs 10:15 PM CT · arrives 12:02 AM CT

Forecast issued Wed 10:00 PM ET · 1h before departure

Arrive at MHK more than 15 minutes late?

50% chance · ±3 pts −8 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.

How late will it get to MHK?

On time or early
46%
15–30 min late
20%
30 min–1 hour late
17%
1–2 hours late
8%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
7%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 500 ft, visibility down to 1.75 mi, 0.9 in of rain forecast at ORD that day

↑ Cloud base down to 700 ft, visibility down to 0.75 mi, 1.1 in of rain forecast at MHK that day

↑ 10pm departures from ORD are often late

↓ Wednesdays in September are usually quieter than average

↓ MHK usually runs smoothly

Weather at each end

ORD (origin) Gusts19 kt Ceiling500 ft Visibility1.75 mi Precip0.95 in

MHK (destination) Gusts10 kt Ceiling700 ft Visibility0.75 mi Precip1.04 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

MQ 3955 · ORD → MHK

Odds over time

How late will it get to MHK?