Schedule: a typical summer Wednesday (the flights of Jul 29, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
ENVOY · FLIGHT MQ 3956
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Wednesday, September 30
MQ 3956 · MHK → DFW
departs 6:00 AM CT · arrives 7:40 AM CT
Forecast issued Wed 10:00 PM ET · 15h after departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Wed 9/30
Today 23%
Mon 10/5 7%
Fri 10/9 6%
Odds over time
Arrive at DFW more than 15 minutes late?
23%
chance · ±0 pts
+4 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
23%
Leave 15+ late
11%
Arrive 1h+ late
9%
Cancelled
3%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
2.8d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at DFW more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 23% · changed +4 pts in 24h
+4 pts
23%
Yes 23%
No 77%
Leave MHK more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 11% · changed −2 pts in 24h
−2 pts
11%
Yes 11%
No 89%
Arrive at DFW more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 9% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
9%
Yes 9%
No 91%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
How late will it get to DFW?
On time or early
75%
15–30 min late
6%
30 min–1 hour late
8%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
5%
Cancelled
3%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 700 ft, visibility down to 1.25 mi, 0.8 in of rain forecast at MHK that day
↑
Gusts to 30 kt, 0.4 in of rain, thunderstorms forecast at DFW that day
↑
DFW is busy at that time
↓
Early flights usually leave on time
↓
6am departures from MHK are usually not late
Weather at each end
MHK (origin)
Gusts 10 kt Ceiling 700 ft Visibility 0.75 mi Precip 1.04 in
DFW (destination)
Gusts 30 kt Ceiling 2,000 ft Visibility 5 mi Precip 0.25 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.