Tracked live by the FAA, but its flight plan was first seen after takeoff, so we don't know the scheduled time and can't say whether it's late.

ENVOY · FLIGHT MQ 3984 LANDED 9:01 AM PT, ~2 MIN EARLY · SCHEDULED TIME UNKNOWN

Wednesday, September 30

MQ 3984 · PHX → SBA

took off 7:46 AM MT · landed 9:01 AM PT (scheduled time unknown)

Forecast issued Wed 10:00 PM ET · 11h after departure

Arrive at SBA more than 15 minutes late?

14% chance · ±0 pts −1 pt · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Other factors

↑ PHX is busy at that time

↑ MQ's recent on-time record

↓ Arrivals into SBA at that hour are usually not late

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at PHX

Weather at each end

PHX (origin) Gusts9 kt Ceiling11,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

SBA (destination) Gusts10 kt Ceiling100 ft Visibility0.8 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

MQ 3984 · PHX → SBA

Odds over time