Schedule: a typical summer Wednesday (the flights of Jul 29, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
ENVOY · FLIGHT MQ 3988
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Wednesday, September 30
MQ 3988 · TUL → DFW
departs 5:00 AM CT · arrives 6:17 AM CT
Forecast issued Wed 10:00 PM ET · 16h after departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Wed 9/30
Today 18%
Mon 10/5 8%
Fri 10/9 6%
Odds over time
Arrive at DFW more than 15 minutes late?
15%
chance · ±0 pts
+4 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
15%
Leave 15+ late
7%
Arrive 1h+ late
5%
Cancelled
3%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
2.9d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at DFW more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 15% · changed +4 pts in 24h
+4 pts
15%
Yes 15%
No 85%
Leave TUL more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 8% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
7%
Yes 7%
No 93%
Arrive at DFW more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
5%
Yes 5%
No 95%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
How late will it get to DFW?
On time or early
83%
15–30 min late
5%
30 min–1 hour late
5%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
3%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Gusts to 30 kt, 0.4 in of rain, thunderstorms forecast at DFW that day
↑
DFW is busy at that time
↑
DFW is prone to delays
↓
Early flights usually leave on time
↓
5am departures from TUL are usually not late
Weather at each end
TUL (origin)
Gusts 24 kt Ceiling 3,800 ft Visibility 7 mi Precip 0.14 in
DFW (destination)
Gusts 30 kt Ceiling 2,000 ft Visibility 5 mi Precip 0.25 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.