MQ 4012 · ORD → DTW

departs 9:12 PM CT · arrives 11:45 PM ET

Forecast issued Wed 10:00 PM ET · 0h before departure

Arrive at DTW more than 15 minutes late?

46% chance · ±3 pts −2 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to DTW?

On time or early
52%
15–30 min late
21%
30 min–1 hour late
14%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
5%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 9pm departures from ORD are often late

↑ Cloud base down to 500 ft, visibility down to 1.75 mi, 0.9 in of rain forecast at ORD that day

↑ Arrivals into DTW at that hour are often late

↓ Wednesdays in September are usually quieter than average

↓ Other factors

Weather at each end

ORD (origin) Gusts19 kt Ceiling500 ft Visibility1.75 mi Precip0.95 in

DTW (destination) Gusts8 kt Ceiling2,800 ft Visibility6 mi Precip0.04 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

MQ 4012 · ORD → DTW

Odds over time

How late will it get to DTW?