MQ 4019 · RAP → PHX

departs 11:51 AM MT · arrives 1:23 PM MT

Forecast issued Wed 8:00 AM ET · 6h before departure

Arrive at PHX more than 15 minutes late?

17% chance · ±0 pts +1 pt · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.

How late will it get to PHX?

On time or early
82%
15–30 min late
11%
30 min–1 hour late
2%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ PHX is prone to delays

↑ This flight has been late 22% of the time recently

↑ RAP is prone to delays

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at PHX

↓ Wednesdays in September are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

RAP (origin) Gusts17 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

PHX (destination) Gusts6 kt Ceiling11,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

MQ 4019 · RAP → PHX

Odds over time

How late will it get to PHX?