MQ 4028 · ORD → XNA

took off 1:10 PM CT · landed 2:28 PM CT (scheduled 11:33 AM CT → 1:20 PM CT)

Forecast issued Wed 10:00 PM ET · 9h after departure

Arrive at XNA more than 15 minutes late?

Late chance · ±0 pts −2 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late did it get to XNA?

RESOLVED

On time or early
–
15–30 min late
–
30 min–1 hour late
–
1–2 hours late
✓
Over 2 hours late
–

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 500 ft, visibility down to 1.75 mi, 0.9 in of rain forecast at ORD that day

↑ 11am departures from ORD are often late

↑ ORD is busy at that time

↓ Wednesdays in September are usually quieter than average

↓ Gusts to 25 kt forecast at XNA that day

Weather at each end

ORD (origin) Gusts19 kt Ceiling500 ft Visibility1.75 mi Precip0.95 in

XNA (destination) Gusts25 kt Ceiling10,800 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.03 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

MQ 4028 · ORD → XNA

Odds over time

How late did it get to XNA?