MQ 4039 · SAT → DFW

took off 11:53 AM CT · landed 12:44 PM CT (scheduled 11:31 AM CT → 12:49 PM CT)

Forecast issued Wed 3:00 PM ET · 2h after departure

Arrive at DFW more than 15 minutes late?

Not late chance · ±1 pts +0 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late did it get to DFW?

RESOLVED

On time or early
✓
15–30 min late
–
30 min–1 hour late
–
1–2 hours late
–
Over 2 hours late
–

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Arrivals into DFW at that hour are often late

↑ DFW is busy at that time

↑ Gusts to 30 kt, 0.3 in of rain forecast at DFW that day

↓ Wednesdays in September are usually quieter than average

↓ 11am departures from SAT are usually not late

Weather at each end

SAT (origin) Gusts23 kt Ceiling1,300 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.05 in

DFW (destination) Gusts30 kt Ceiling2,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.30 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

MQ 4039 · SAT → DFW

Odds over time

How late did it get to DFW?