MQ 4045 · ORD → MSN

departs 10:55 PM CT · arrives 11:53 PM CT

Forecast issued Wed 10:00 PM ET · 2h before departure

Arrive at MSN more than 15 minutes late?

90% chance · ±0 pts +40 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.

How late will it get to MSN?

On time or early
9%
15–30 min late
52%
30 min–1 hour late
0%
1–2 hours late
25%
Over 2 hours late
5%
Cancelled
9%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 500 ft, visibility down to 1.75 mi, 0.9 in of rain forecast at ORD that day

↑ 10pm departures from ORD are often late

↑ Cloud base down to 400 ft, visibility down to 1.5 mi forecast at MSN that day

↓ MSN usually runs smoothly

↓ Wednesdays in September are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

ORD (origin) Gusts19 kt Ceiling500 ft Visibility1.75 mi Precip0.95 in

MSN (destination) Gusts8 kt Ceiling340 ft Visibility1.5 mi Precip0.31 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

MQ 4045 · ORD → MSN

Odds over time

How late will it get to MSN?