Schedule: a typical Wednesday (the flights of Jul 29, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
ENVOY · FLIGHT MQ 4099
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Wednesday, September 30 Yesterday
MQ 4099 · SMF → PHX
departs 9:52 AM PT · arrives 11:50 AM MT
Forecast issued Wed 10:00 PM ET · 9h after departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Wed 9/30
Today 20%
Fri 10/2 12%
Sat 10/3 12%
Sun 10/4 11%
Mon 10/5 12%
Tue 10/6 10%
Wed 10/7 10%
Odds over time
Arrive at PHX more than 15 minutes late?
15%
chance · ±0 pts
+3 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
15%
Leave 15+ late
11%
Arrive 1h+ late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
2.8d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at PHX more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 15% · changed +3 pts in 24h
+3 pts
15%
Yes 15%
No 85%
Leave SMF more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 11% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
11%
Yes 11%
No 89%
Arrive at PHX more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to PHX?
On time or early
85%
15–30 min late
9%
30 min–1 hour late
3%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
PHX is prone to delays
↑
PHX is busy at that time
↑
SMF is prone to delays
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at SMF
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at PHX
Weather at each end
SMF (origin)
Gusts 6 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
PHX (destination)
Gusts 9 kt Ceiling 11,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.