MQ 4102 · TYS → ORD

took off 11:30 AM ET · expected to land 11:56 AM CT (scheduled 11:28 AM ET → 12:22 PM CT)

Forecast issued Wed 10:00 AM ET · 2h before departure

Arrive at ORD more than 15 minutes late?

<1% chance · ±0 pts +6 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.

How late will it get to ORD?

LIVE

On time or early
100%
15–30 min late
<1%
30 min–1 hour late
0%
1–2 hours late
0%
Over 2 hours late
0%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%; while it’s in the air they come from the FAA’s arrival estimate.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 900 ft, visibility down to 2 mi, 0.8 in of rain forecast at ORD that day

↑ Arrivals into ORD at that hour are often late

↑ ORD is busy at that time

↓ Wednesdays in September are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at TYS

Weather at each end

TYS (origin) Gusts7 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

ORD (destination) Gusts20 kt Ceiling900 ft Visibility2 mi Precip0.77 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

MQ 4102 · TYS → ORD

Odds over time

How late will it get to ORD?