MQ 4104 · ORD → ROC

took off 8:31 AM CT · landed 10:45 AM ET (scheduled 8:18 AM CT → 11:15 AM ET)

Forecast issued Wed 10:00 PM ET · 13h after departure

Arrive at ROC more than 15 minutes late?

Not late chance · ±0 pts +10 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late did it get to ROC?

RESOLVED

On time or early
✓
15–30 min late
–
30 min–1 hour late
–
1–2 hours late
–
Over 2 hours late
–

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 500 ft, visibility down to 1.75 mi, 0.9 in of rain forecast at ORD that day

↑ 8am departures from ORD are often late

↑ ORD is busy at that time

↓ Early flights usually leave on time

↓ ROC usually runs smoothly

Weather at each end

ORD (origin) Gusts19 kt Ceiling500 ft Visibility1.75 mi Precip0.95 in

ROC (destination) Gusts12 kt Ceiling5,000 ft Visibility4 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

MQ 4104 · ORD → ROC

Odds over time

How late did it get to ROC?