Tracked live by the FAA, but its flight plan was first seen after takeoff, so we don't know the scheduled time and can't say whether it's late.

ENVOY · FLIGHT MQ 4111 LANDED 8:15 AM CT, ~7 MIN LATE · SCHEDULED TIME UNKNOWN

Wednesday, September 30

MQ 4111 · DFW → XNA

took off 7:27 AM CT · landed 8:15 AM CT (scheduled time unknown)

Forecast issued Wed 10:00 PM ET · 14h after departure

Arrive at XNA more than 15 minutes late?

19% chance · ±0 pts +10 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Other factors

↑ Gusts to 30 kt, 0.4 in of rain, thunderstorms forecast at DFW that day

↑ DFW is busy at that time

↓ Early flights usually leave on time

↓ Gusts to 25 kt forecast at XNA that day

Weather at each end

DFW (origin) Gusts30 kt Ceiling2,000 ft Visibility5 mi Precip0.25 in

XNA (destination) Gusts25 kt Ceiling10,800 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.03 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

MQ 4111 · DFW → XNA

Odds over time