MQ 4151 · MHK → ORD

departs 5:17 PM CT · arrives 7:29 PM CT

Forecast issued Wed 1:00 PM ET · 5h before departure

Arrive at ORD more than 15 minutes late?

42% chance · ±0 pts −14 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.

How late will it get to ORD?

On time or early
56%
15–30 min late
3%
30 min–1 hour late
19%
1–2 hours late
9%
Over 2 hours late
9%
Cancelled
3%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 700 ft, visibility down to 1.25 mi, 1.1 in of rain forecast at MHK that day

↑ Arrivals into ORD at that hour are often late

↑ Cloud base down to 500 ft, visibility down to 1.75 mi, 1.0 in of rain forecast at ORD that day

↓ Wednesdays in September are usually quieter than average

↓ Other factors

Weather at each end

MHK (origin) Gusts16 kt Ceiling700 ft Visibility1.25 mi Precip1.14 in

ORD (destination) Gusts17 kt Ceiling500 ft Visibility1.75 mi Precip1.01 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

MQ 4151 · MHK → ORD

Odds over time

How late will it get to ORD?