Schedule: a typical Wednesday (the flights of Jul 29, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
ENVOY · FLIGHT MQ 4153
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Wednesday, September 30 Today
MQ 4153 · VPS → ORD
departs 11:32 AM CT · arrives 2:14 PM CT
Forecast issued Wed 6:00 AM ET · 6h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today
Thu 10/1 48%
Fri 10/2 21%
Sat 10/3 21%
Sun 10/4 20%
Mon 10/5 14%
Tue 10/6 17%
Odds over time
Arrive at ORD more than 15 minutes late?
52%
chance · ±6 pts
+22 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
52%
Leave 15+ late
35%
Arrive 1h+ late
17%
Cancelled
3%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
2.8d
2d
1d
12h
Now
Departs
Lands
Arrive at ORD more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 13% · changed +22 pts in 24h
+22 pts
52%
Yes 52%
No 48%
Leave VPS more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 9% · changed +15 pts in 24h
+15 pts
35%
Yes 35%
No 65%
Arrive at ORD more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed +7 pts in 24h
+7 pts
17%
Yes 17%
No 83%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
How late will it get to ORD?
On time or early
47%
15–30 min late
15%
30 min–1 hour late
18%
1–2 hours late
9%
Over 2 hours late
8%
Cancelled
3%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 600 ft, 0.9 in of rain forecast at ORD that day
↑
Arrivals into ORD at that hour are often late
↑
ORD is busy at that time
↓
Wednesdays in September are usually quieter than average
↓
Other factors
Weather at each end
VPS (origin)
Gusts 16 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
ORD (destination)
Gusts 20 kt Ceiling 600 ft Visibility 3 mi Precip 0.86 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.