Schedule: a typical Wednesday (the flights of Jul 29, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
ENVOY · FLIGHT MQ 4154
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Wednesday, September 30 Yesterday
MQ 4154 · PHX → CLD
departs 9:15 PM MT · arrives 10:29 PM PT
Forecast issued Wed 10:00 PM ET · 2h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Wed 9/30
Today 13%
Fri 10/2 15%
Sat 10/3 11%
Sun 10/4 17%
Mon 10/5 18%
Tue 10/6 14%
Wed 10/7 14%
Odds over time
Arrive at CLD more than 15 minutes late?
58%
chance · ±0 pts
+41 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.
Arrive 15+ late
58%
Leave 15+ late
54%
Arrive 1h+ late
30%
Cancelled
<1%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
2.9d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Now
Departs
Lands
Arrive at CLD more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 13% · changed +41 pts in 24h
+41 pts
58%
Yes 58%
No 42%
Leave PHX more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 11% · changed +42 pts in 24h
+42 pts
54%
Yes 54%
No 46%
Arrive at CLD more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed +26 pts in 24h
+26 pts
30%
Yes 30%
No 70%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to CLD?
On time or early
42%
15–30 min late
51%
30 min–1 hour late
0%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
9pm departures from PHX are often late
↑
PHX is busy at that time
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at PHX
↓
Wednesdays in September are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
PHX (origin)
Gusts 9 kt Ceiling 11,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
CLD (destination)
Gusts 9 kt Ceiling 800 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.