Tracked live by the FAA, but its flight plan was first seen after takeoff, so we don't know the scheduled time and can't say whether it's late.

ENVOY · FLIGHT MQ 4186 LANDED 7:02 AM CT, ~14 MIN LATE · SCHEDULED TIME UNKNOWN

Wednesday, September 30

MQ 4186 · BHM → DFW

took off 5:30 AM CT · landed 7:02 AM CT (scheduled time unknown)

Forecast issued Wed 10:00 PM ET · 15h after departure

Arrive at DFW more than 15 minutes late?

19% chance · ±0 pts +6 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Other factors

↑ Gusts to 30 kt, 0.4 in of rain, thunderstorms forecast at DFW that day

↑ MQ's recent on-time record

↓ Early flights usually leave on time

↓ 5am departures from BHM are usually not late

Weather at each end

BHM (origin) Gusts8 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

DFW (destination) Gusts30 kt Ceiling2,000 ft Visibility5 mi Precip0.25 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

MQ 4186 · BHM → DFW

Odds over time